July 12, 2007

Poll Shows Quebec Trend Emerging

Warning LOLOLOL moment incoming….

Jack “Emo” Layton is the most popular leader in the Liberal Fort Knox of Montreal…

Emo 24 Harper 19 Duceppe 16 Dion 12 in Montreal…

While seeing Emo at the top of the list was rather intriguing, leader numbers are always good for a laugh. The voting intention numbers of the Environics poll are what interested me most. There are two trends emerging, and the big winner is Stephen Harper.

In 1997 and 2000, Jean Chretien was successful in rallying the federalist vote to defeat the Bloc Quebecois. As the Tories became viable again in Quebec, the Liberal fortress of Montreal held strong. In 2006, on the heels of Gomery, Conservative votes on the island of Montreal reaching 15% cost Eleni Bakopanos, Pierre Pettigrew, Jacques Saada, and Liza Frulla their seats. Jean Lapierre, Pablo Rodriguez and Denis Coderre held on for dear life. Montreal was no longer safe Liberal territory.

Here are the Montreal results today…

Bloc 31 PLC 20 New Emo-crats 19 PC 17 Greens 14

Close enough for you (eat your hearts out Lower Mainland British Columbia)

The sample size was small (217) and we do not know how the vote is spread out, but this is a trend we never saw in other polls.

Outside Montreal, the federalist vote is rallying once again as it was in 1997 and 2000. Except now it is rallying in favor of the Conservatives. (283 respondents)

PC 37 Bloc 31 PLC 15 New Emo-crats 7

The world has really turned upside down here in Quebec in a very short time.

I think other polls should be done to see if this trend does hold true. If it does, we could be in for a very interesting election…

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8 Commentaires:

Blogger Danick a dit...

The sample is very small. However, we will have to campaign hard in Montréal this time since the NDP will be a factor in the electoral equation. The Thomas Mulcair effect and the division of the left may actually help some Conservatives (however it would surprise me alot in Montréal). Many ridings will be very close!

7/12/2007 7:38 PM  
Blogger bigcitylib a dit...

Weren't you the guy that was saying Trudeau's kid could never win his nomination?

Why is it that Quebec pundits are even worse at predicting things than the ROC ones?

7/12/2007 7:40 PM  
Blogger Phil a dit...

These polls mean nothing. NDP support is always way higher before a campaign begins. You tend to put way too much weight into polls. Remember that year where on your MSN name you always had the latest "Oui"/"Non" polls? That was in 2005 I believe. What do those polls mean now? Nothing.

And seriously, what does it really matter if there is a Liberal/NDP/Bloc/Tory as the representative for the ridings? Change is incremental in this country. All those parties are of the status quo so you can expect no real changes to result.

7/13/2007 3:35 PM  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

After the fiscal imbalance agreement and the Quebec nation resolution support for sovereignty is at 32% and in freefall...

7/13/2007 4:03 PM  
Blogger Phil a dit...

There was never any seperatist threat post-2000. It's fear mongering on the part of French Canadians to maximize the "Quebec profile" that governments are burdened with.

7/13/2007 5:01 PM  
Blogger Phil a dit...

A good example of why polling is so unreliable:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/13/AR2007071301891.html?hpid=sec-politics

Your Hillary sure is a proponent of dialogue and democracy.

7/14/2007 3:20 AM  
Blogger James Bowie a dit...

Why are you still on Liblogs?

7/16/2007 3:22 AM  
Blogger ainge lotusland a dit...

hey, you posted.

lol @ "why are you still on liblogs" comment

liblogs aint shit without antonio. liblogs should know this by now.

7/18/2007 3:34 PM  

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