July 18, 2007

Coulon Carries Burden for Dion

Noted academic Jocelyn Coulon will carry the Liberal banner in the upcoming Outremont by-election. He was chosen after Marc Garneau (first Canadian in space) withdrew his candidacy and former mayor Jerome Unterberg decided to pass.

While other candidates had submitted CVs to Mr. Dion, he has decided to run Mr. Coulon. An expert on human rights and foreign affairs, Coulon could bring some intellectual weight to the party, necessary after the departure of Bill Graham and Stephen Owen. (No I was not going to put intellectual and heavyweight in a sentence with Jean Lapierre).

Dion himself was a handpicked academic 10 years ago recruited to bring the Liberals some intellectual punch in their fight against the sovereigntists.

As Elizabeth Thompson reported this morning, some in the party (I have also heard this) are calling the Outremont by-election a litmus test for Dion’s leadership. There some very unhappy campers in the Quebec wing of the Liberal party and many are looking to the by-election to make some noise if the Liberals come up short.

The Liberals have a good shot at retaining the riding. Coulon will siphon some of the soft sovereigntist vote because he is a respected academic. With support for sovereignty on the island of Montreal nearing 20%, it will be difficult to imagine Jean-Paul Gilson rallying the Bloc forces. My sources within the Bloc tell me he won’t have the student groups Farouk Karim had nor the organization star candidate Jacques Leonard had in 2006.

The Tories, who finished 5th here in 2006, plan on running a campaign where they will spend the maximum. The goal here will be to embarrass the Liberals. As many Jewish organizers here on the island have bolted to the Tories, a high profile Jew may be enough to steal away some valuable Liberal votes to help the wild card in this equation, Thom Mulclair, squeak through.

The NEP, or the Emo-crats, have a chance to win this riding. With staff being mobilized from all corners of the province (they really need to go to all corners) and even some coming in from Ottawa, Jack and friends will put all they have into winning this by-election. If the NDP can get the usual Bloc student vote and a chunk of the Green vote to vote for Mulclair, who is very popular in that constituency, he has a very good chance at getting elected. The McGill ghetto, also partially in the riding, will be key to the NDP votes as well.

It will be something to watch this fall, depending when Steve drops the writ. But for now, this academic will have to carry the entire weight of Dion’s leadership on his shoulders. Bonne Chance M. Coulon…

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5 Commentaires:

Blogger Mushroom a dit...

Uh oh.

This is not what I expected.

Dion should have appointed a woman to run in Outremont. That Liza Frulla and Louise Arbour are out of the radar does not mean that you seek a male star candidate.

The star candidate is Mulcair, more due to image than anything else.

By appointing a woman, Dion could use the word "renewal" as something to fall back on. Now, this by-election becomes more of a test of his leadership credentials.

7/18/2007 12:28 p.m.  
Blogger Phil a dit...

Louise Arbour is horribly overrated. Rwanda anybody?

7/19/2007 2:52 p.m.  
Blogger Mushroom a dit...

Phil,

Who are you?

Listening to the postulations of a French judge who is pro-Hutu. At the same time, giving credibility to a French regime that supports tin-pot dictators like that wacko Bokassa at the Central African Republic.

Sarkozy and Harper going to embark in future military intervention. Gabon, Chad, and Brazzaville anyone?

7/19/2007 8:31 p.m.  
Blogger JJ a dit...

Outremont Jewish Community is very savy politically.

They will vote, en masse, for the winner and that won't be the Tories.

7/19/2007 10:18 p.m.  
Blogger Phil a dit...

mushroom - my name is phil. i am a pro-bologna sandwich populist. i believe in the work boots. the workers. not some elitist frenchwoman who had no decency to inquire into a matter that turned into a genocide. Shame on her!

7/20/2007 2:35 a.m.  

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