March 2, 2007

Stephane Dion will be the End of the Bloc Quebecois

With the PQ faltering, it seems the Bloc Quebecois is taking the nosedive as well. As many know, the Bloc hold almost all rural Quebec seats, with most of Montreal being Liberal and most of Quebec City being Conservative.

Now, the PQ has fallen to about 35% in rural Quebec, leaving the PLQ and recently Dion-endorsed (lawl) Quebec Reform Party, the ADQ, with a combined 65% of the vote.

The Bloc is also facing these numbers, which begs the question, if the separatist forces are getting only 35% support in their heartland, the next election may be dangerous if the federalist vote is not split.

Last election, Montreal's federalists rallied behind Liberals and Quebec City's rallied behind the Tories to give those parties victory. Liberals lost Montreal seats because of a Tory upsurge, but those voters learned their lessons, in Montreal, if you want a federalist, vote Liberal.

However, we all know how the ADQ is in bed with the Tories and Jean Charest and Stephen Harper have reached second base, so a combined federalist vote for the Conservatives put 35 of 50 Bloc ridings in play. With resources spread so thin, Liberals will re-gain what we recently lost to the Bloc, but expect a Tory surge in rural Quebec, as voters will vote for the best federalist party, which in their area right now, is the Conservative Party.

The Tories have a potential to gain as much as 40 Quebec seats in the next election, but could win as little as ten. If seat totals stay the same, that would give Stephen Harper 156 seats, a majority government. Watch the ADQ's rise this election. Whereever they end up winning seats, add that to the Tory win column. Look at combined results, and then find out why the BQ is shitting their pants right now...

The thought of a Conservative majority sends a shiver down my spine too, but neglecting the feelings and needs of Quebecers has its price. the BQ thought electing Dion would be best for them, but if it polarizes voters for the Conservatives, Stephane Dion may just be the end of the Bloc Quebecois after all...

25 Commentaires:

Blogger s.b. a dit...

This comment has been removed by the author.

3/02/2007 10:06 AM  
Blogger s.b. a dit...

The Conservative Party is not in line with Quebekers socially, fiscally or politically. Don't be so sure they won't vote for Stephane, especially in Quebec City.

3/02/2007 10:07 AM  
Blogger WestmountLiberal a dit...

Chantal beat you to the punch. Great minds think alike!

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/article/187304

3/02/2007 10:21 AM  
Blogger Manitoba Liberal a dit...

S.B,

Do you think Dryden will run in the next leadership we will be having in a year since Dion is such a diaster?

3/02/2007 3:25 PM  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

This comment has been removed by the author.

3/02/2007 3:42 PM  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

Great post Antonio

It is still early in the Quebec provincial election, but if this trend holds, we may be seeing the beginning of a general dissatisfaction with the PQ policy of referendums, oh sorry, "public consultations". A majority of Quebecers think health care, environment, and the ever-lagging economy are more important issues to be dealt with.

Going to the federal level, it is great news... if it holds. Although the Tories are a little low in Quebec compared to their election numbers, I'm sure they can recuperate those numbers. Tories and Grits should be working together in Quebec to take down the Bloc once and for all; federalism is more important that party differences.

3/02/2007 4:58 PM  
Blogger Mushroom a dit...

The truth is that it may require another election for the Bloc to collapse.

In my earlier blog posting, I have noted the problems Quebec Liberals have in attracting visually minority francophonie during the Chretien-Martin era.

Even if Harper will benefit from the ADQ and win 40 seats, the Liberals and the Bloc will be fighting tooth and nail for the 35. The Grits will require Duceppe's entry into Quebec politics for the Bloc to dissolve itself. It remains to be seen if it happens before and after the election.

For Dion to dissolve the Bloc, overtures need to be made to target "soft social democratic sovereigntists". Not supporting the Bloc on C-273 is a mistake in my opinion. You can also postulate that running Justin Trudeau against Vivian Barbot in Papineau does the collapsing Bloc Quebecois no favours.

3/02/2007 5:48 PM  
Blogger Chuckercanuck a dit...

who is s.b. and how does she know what Quebeckers think?

where has she lived and worked in Quebec?

is Ontario as monolithically single-minded as Quebec? I seem to have read elsewhere she made distinctions between voter mind-sets within a single riding in Toronto (Rosedale voters vs. Gay village voters).

But we Quebeckers are a bunch of monkeys who can't have a diversity of opinion?

Folks in Abitibi think like folks on the Plateau? Folks in Levis think like folks in Gatineau?

Folks in upper westmount think like folks in St-Henri?

How does she react to the radio DJ in Saguenay who says he wouldn't vote for a tapette? does she think that a West Islander like me thinks the same way? That's deeply offensive to suggest I'm homophobic because someone in rural Quebec is homophobic.

3/02/2007 9:43 PM  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

This comment has been removed by the author.

3/03/2007 12:28 AM  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

Chuckercanuck

The best thing to do when you read an off-the-wall comment from s.b. (shoshana berman), is to have a luagh and ignore it.

Someone who says the Conservative Party is not in line with Quebec, despite the fact of the party winning 10 seats, isn't well-informed nor understand Quebecers and Quebec politics. Quebec is socially progressive yes, but there is much more to Quebec. Quebec is unique.

Shoahana, I'm not saying you are completely wrong in your statement, but the issue is more complex than that. Differences between rural and urban Quebec are quite big. Diferences between Montreal and Quebec City are quite big. Statements like your's are too generalized.

3/03/2007 12:31 AM  
Blogger andrewridgeley a dit...

S.B.,

Well, Steve Harper believes in the fiscal imbalance and intends on doing something, although not enough, about it. Stéphane Dion has no policy on this matter because its an issue he has refused to acknowledge the existence of.

If Steve Harper isn't in line with the fiscal values of Québecers, where in all the world does that put Stéphane Dion and the Liberal Party of Canada? Not in government, that's for sure.

3/03/2007 3:03 AM  
Blogger Chuckercanuck a dit...

you're right.

I'm sure she wasn't trying to be insulting by suggesting Quebeckers are idiot-robots who need their ideas spoon-fed to us.

But that's how it reads.

3/03/2007 7:35 AM  
Blogger s.b. a dit...

Chucker my comment on Quebeckers are based on every poll ever done on the preferences and priorities of Quebeckers in general.

Yes Virginia, there is such a thing as Quebeckers in general. They tend to be left wing fiscally, anti-war and socially progressive. That by no means that everyone in Quebec feels this way, just the majority and these are not values that are in line with the conservative Party.

Voters in Quebec City do tend to be more Conservative but my comment was in reference to Dion being a native son.

By the way, not that it's any of your business, but my family is from Montreal for over a hundred years since the 19th century, far longer than Antonnio's and more than likely yours. However, anyone is entitled to an opinion based on polling data that is a fact regardless.

P.S. My comment was to Antonio, not you, and he knew exactly what I meant, since we have discussed this several times. I also know exactly what he meant. It was more of a one liner in an on going conversation between us. You are welcome for my explaination.

3/03/2007 8:59 AM  
Blogger Chuckercanuck a dit...

s.b.,

so you think the length of time your family in Quebec makes you somehow more legitimate?

wow! do the immigrants the Liberal party courts know the kind of thoughts that run through your head? How welcoming!

3/03/2007 9:04 AM  
Blogger s.b. a dit...

P.P.S. Don't you all have anything better to do than baselessly criticize a comment that I make that is correct and supported by every political commentator in Canada?

Cat Mutant you attack everything I say. If I said the sky was blue you'd tell people I was wrong. It's getting boring and why are you so threatened by me?

You people must spend a lot of time in your basements on the internet with nothing better to do. Really get a life! Go out and meet real people.

Manitoba, we are not having a leadership contest in a year we will win more seats in the next election than we did last time and depending on when it is called probably win, not a majority but win. Dion is doing a great job! As well as Mulrouny, and Chretien and better than Harper in his first two months in opposition. Put it in historical perspective. The only difference is we have a minority and that isn't going to change no matter who is leader. So the dynamics are different in the press. Dion is doing just fine.

3/03/2007 9:06 AM  
Blogger s.b. a dit...

Chucker wow can you read. No I said not that it matters and that anyone can have an oppinion. You are really just interested in attacking for no reason. Maybe you have some kind of problem you need to work through but really leave me out of it. If you want to constuctively discuss and debate that would be great regardless of your oppinion or political affiliation. I have had lots of great discussions with Conservatives. If you want to attack me for the sake of attacking me please seek help, and don't call yourself a Liberal because I'm guessing that you aren't.

3/03/2007 9:09 AM  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

Shoshana

READ my last comment, I said you were not completely wrong but generalizing. I don't think that's an attack.

As for me advising Chucker to ignore your comment, it's because you say come things that are totally outrageous.

Case in point... Who cares if your family is from Montreal over a hundred years? My family is from Europe for thousands and thousands of years before some immigrated to Canada. That doesn't mean that I have a better understanding of Europe, just because my ancestors originate from there.

Your statement, although I believe was innocently said, seems to say that you are somewhat bettern entitled and informed on Quebec matters, just because your family was here longer than Antonio's. I beg to differ.

3/03/2007 9:39 AM  
Blogger s.b. a dit...

Cat, Chucker asked a specific question about my relationship to Quebec and I gave him a specific answer. To attack me for giving him an answer to a direct question is baseless and petty. He just didn't like my answer, which in fact made his point that I had no right to comment on Quebec baseless. Also it doesn't matter, anyone can have an opinion on Quebec. He is just trying to atttack me to justify his own personal issues. It really had nothing to do with my comment to Antonio. An approprate question would have been, "Why do you feel this way S.B.? since it was obvously a comment to Antonio.

3/03/2007 10:34 AM  
Blogger Chuckercanuck a dit...

SB,

all fair. full disclosure: I am a Quebecker and a Harpermaniac.

Quebec is the place where support for privatized medicare is highest.

Quebec is the place where tolerance for immigrants is lowest.

Are we truly what you say?

I don't support either of the above things but we all pick and choose what characterizations we want to make.

For example: everyone in Toronto is a communist who works in concert with separatists in Quebec because the migration of talent and wealth from Quebec to Toronto has been single source of Toronto's good fortunes. Toronto votes overwhelmingly for communists, whether they be left-wing NDPers or extreme left-wing Liberals.

Once Bill Graham is gone, there won't be a single centrist politician from the Toronto area. Plus David Miller makes Lenin look like a free-markerter.

Does that simplification rankle you at all? If so, you'll understand why people might "attack" what you say.

ps. I was not attacking you. I was genuinely offended by what you said and then you responded by telling me my family hadn't been here long enough! which is a joke because you have no clue about that!

3/03/2007 10:58 AM  
Blogger Down & Out in L A a dit...

When I was kid I lived in Ville Brossard so I am going to claim expert status on Quebec too, even though I have forgotten much more than I remember and haven't lived there since 1968.

But I have been back quite a few times for visits, most recently for the leadership convention.

It feels good to be an expert.

3/03/2007 2:11 PM  
Blogger Jason Bo Green a dit...

federalism is more important that party differences

Well said, and hear, hear! Or is it here, here? I never know.

I lived in Quebec for four months, and I've been an expert on it ever since. Go on, ask me anything!

3/04/2007 1:55 PM  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

I'm no expert but I do believe I just got Bourqued 2 posts in a row

3/04/2007 1:57 PM  
Blogger Jason Bo Green a dit...

Say, that Hebert article was awfully good. Damn, I'd marry that woman in a heartbeat.

3/04/2007 2:07 PM  
Blogger Copernic262 a dit...

What a ridiculous idea to suggest Dion would make the BQ disappear. Dream dream dream. All the 45 & of QC population that currently support the BQ remember that Dion is the one who brought the Clarity Bill to the HOC. Even Trudeau would not have done that. Predicting that Dion will be Kick out of the libs by Quebec liberals is a more realistic idea.

3/04/2007 2:46 PM  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

copernic562

read the post

I suggest his impopularity will allow harper to throw them out...

3/04/2007 3:45 PM  

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