Justin Deserved to Win
Oooh time to eat crow!
As I said yesterday, Justin knows the riding very well and I would be proud to have him as the Liberal MP for Papineau.
I still thought Deros would win this morning, but the reason Justin won was simple, he got out his vote.
Now that the race is over , I can unveil the actual card sales combined with their vote.
Justin Trudeau about 640/1060 or 60%
Mary Deros 327/960 or 34%
Basilio Giordano 217/840 or 26%
The shotgun deal WAS in effect Sunday as I spoke to many in both camps who were hoping for their candidate to finish second. If both would have brought out 50 more votes each, my prediction would have been right.
There were 600 current members of the association before the nomination but over 200 were Volpe ghost members and the rest were evenly divided.
Justin worked the riding. He got out the vote. He is the best candidate the party could have. No matter what the local strength of Deros, getting out a third of your vote is pitiful, and would probably not have delivered the goods in an election against the Bloc.
It is always good to have the guy who mobilized the best be your candidate…that applies at all levels of politics.
Dispelling a few Myths
For those who worry Justin will embarrass the party in Quebec, the man ran 6 weeks without making any comment that drew the ire of the French press. (If only Dion could be so lucky!) We will see their reaction tomorrow. My guess is it will not be that bad. Even the journalists thought Justin earned it. I know I felt he earned it after the interview and seeing the room today.
The Kennedy Toronto Factor
There is no doubt Justin got some help from outside, help which he cannot depend on during the federal campaign. However, he still got out 60% of his vote. He will make waves. Those in Quebec saw that he earned it, and it would surprise me if other Quebec Liberals did not lend a hand. We saw a few Ottawa staff people handing out Trudeau paraphernalia, but to be honest, it did not change the outcome.
Justin’s speech was meh, to be honest. (much better than the other two, don’t get me started on Giordano I am still offended)
Justin tried to channel his dad, but it didn’t work for me. People all remember Pierre Trudeau in their own way, so I don’t really think Justin will ever satisfy everyone by always channeling his dad. Justin’s best moments came when he was being himself…
He did sound a bit demagogic, and at times, like a certain MP from Etobicoke, much to my amusement. He needs to refine it, but I am confident he will, because Justin wants this badly, and he is willing to work very hard to get it.
I will seriously stop making predictions. The only one I got right was saying Dion would win on after seeing round 1 on Friday night. I think I am worse than Radio-Canada when it comes to these things…
Either way, for someone who thought Justin could never cut it, he delivered the merchandise and come election time, I am certain Justin will send Vivian Barbot packing…
Good Luck Justin
Today, you earned it!
As I said yesterday, Justin knows the riding very well and I would be proud to have him as the Liberal MP for Papineau.
I still thought Deros would win this morning, but the reason Justin won was simple, he got out his vote.
Now that the race is over , I can unveil the actual card sales combined with their vote.
Justin Trudeau about 640/1060 or 60%
Mary Deros 327/960 or 34%
Basilio Giordano 217/840 or 26%
The shotgun deal WAS in effect Sunday as I spoke to many in both camps who were hoping for their candidate to finish second. If both would have brought out 50 more votes each, my prediction would have been right.
There were 600 current members of the association before the nomination but over 200 were Volpe ghost members and the rest were evenly divided.
Justin worked the riding. He got out the vote. He is the best candidate the party could have. No matter what the local strength of Deros, getting out a third of your vote is pitiful, and would probably not have delivered the goods in an election against the Bloc.
It is always good to have the guy who mobilized the best be your candidate…that applies at all levels of politics.
Dispelling a few Myths
For those who worry Justin will embarrass the party in Quebec, the man ran 6 weeks without making any comment that drew the ire of the French press. (If only Dion could be so lucky!) We will see their reaction tomorrow. My guess is it will not be that bad. Even the journalists thought Justin earned it. I know I felt he earned it after the interview and seeing the room today.
The Kennedy Toronto Factor
There is no doubt Justin got some help from outside, help which he cannot depend on during the federal campaign. However, he still got out 60% of his vote. He will make waves. Those in Quebec saw that he earned it, and it would surprise me if other Quebec Liberals did not lend a hand. We saw a few Ottawa staff people handing out Trudeau paraphernalia, but to be honest, it did not change the outcome.
Justin’s speech was meh, to be honest. (much better than the other two, don’t get me started on Giordano I am still offended)
Justin tried to channel his dad, but it didn’t work for me. People all remember Pierre Trudeau in their own way, so I don’t really think Justin will ever satisfy everyone by always channeling his dad. Justin’s best moments came when he was being himself…
He did sound a bit demagogic, and at times, like a certain MP from Etobicoke, much to my amusement. He needs to refine it, but I am confident he will, because Justin wants this badly, and he is willing to work very hard to get it.
I will seriously stop making predictions. The only one I got right was saying Dion would win on after seeing round 1 on Friday night. I think I am worse than Radio-Canada when it comes to these things…
Either way, for someone who thought Justin could never cut it, he delivered the merchandise and come election time, I am certain Justin will send Vivian Barbot packing…
Good Luck Justin
Today, you earned it!
Labels: At my rate of predicting things I am sure Justin wants me to say he will lose to Barbot
par / by Anthony à / at 9:36 p.m.
10 Commentaires:
Justin will definitely be an asset to the liberals!
Antonio, you picked the awful cyberpresse picture. Surely you could have found a better picture than that.
Other than that, well done.
AND I'm glad to see that you were mortally wounded in that hallway incident. Don't feel bad - even I felt her wrath today.
yes the French media...
Marsha should read my blog before blasting me about party unity...
SHIT! I meant to write were NOT mortally wounded. Sorry!
Why would someone buy a membership during a nomination contest and then not vote?
Actually, the picture is brilliant - shows his drama creds.
Snarkiness aside, it sounds like he did a lot of hard work and earned it, so kudos to him for not resting on his father's laurels and hoping his name would be enough.
Of course, he still has to win the seat, but this was a good start for him - sounds like he's got more support behind him than, say, Brison, who "addressed about 70 supporters" at his nomination meeting.
interesting choice for a picture antonio.
care to elaborate why you are offended by giordano?
giordano went into an ethnic nationalist speech about why where he was born was more important than what he had to say.
It wasnt put that way but that was the gist...
He did it in italian too...ugh ethnic nationalism...i wanna remove that memory from my mind...
FYI CBC was reporting he got 690 votes, and that 637 was the number required for a majority
thats possible
Trudeau got his majority by 48 votes and he had 54%
the rest was just screaming...
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