SES points out the Obvious…

Stephen Harper has yet to gain enough votes to get a majority government, but trends are starting to emerge, specifically in Quebec. The latest numbers out of my home province have the Bloc at 37, Tories at 28, and the Liberals in 3rd at 18.

Nik Nanos, who is a smart guy, say the Liberal numbers collapse may have a direct co-relation with the sponsorship being back in the news, and not with the federal budget.

I guess being there but not knowing anything is still not an excuse for the Liberal Party in Quebec. Guilt by association is alive and well in Quebec. “Dion was there! He should have known!” may become a factor if the Lafleur thing stays in the headlines…

I do know that sponsorship anger in 2006 sent votes to the Bloc. This time, some support seems to be going to the Tories. This is kind of alarming. If the Tories replace the Liberals outside of Montreal as the federalist option, then our chances in about 50 Quebec ridings just went caput…(most were already caput). With no other viable federalist option, the vote in some of these regions may not split, and the Tories stand to gain a few ridings, especially those where the PQ came 3rd provincially…a prime example of which is Vaudreuil Soulanges, where Michael Fortier is running and the PLQ held on to both seats with the ADQ finishing a strong second in both…

Stephen Harper does not yet have his majority, but 25 seats for him is becoming a possibility in Quebec, and if it were to happen, that would put him halfway there…