March 26, 2007

The Nation Decides…

OK, I hate making predictions but everyone is asking for them…

This election campaign has been nothing short of a gong show. Ever since the return of the right to politics, the most ridiculous things have become election issues.

In 2006, when crime rates had been going down for years, there was a crime epidemic. One MPs letter requesting an investigation became an automatic assumption of guilt, which would later be proved wrong, but since when do the facts matter. (Crime is not the ridiculous issue, the fake epidemic is)

In Quebec this year, all hell has broken loose. In a series of “who the F@#$ cares” issues, 11 year-old soccer players and the 30 burqa wearing women in Quebec got more attention than education. No wonder the PQ is doing so badly. Their priority is education. Nobody is talking about education. For Charest it’s health care. Old people like health care. Old people vote. Small point to Charest.

Mario Dumont is talking about whatever is on the front page of the Journal de Montreal. At least Dumont did not take credit for the Habs winning streak, which in all likelihood, has had a bigger impact on the actual numbers than the federal budget. Why? GONG SHOW!

Prediction!

I look at some ridings and I see one trend, the undecideds are streaming to the PLQ, as they usually do. People are choosing the devils they know. If the trend continues and the vote comes down to a few ridings, the PLQ should be in power at the end of the night with approximately 53-57 seats. If all momentum heads their way, a 1 or 2 seat majority is within reach, but they would have to steal a couple at the very last minute to pull it off.

The ADQ will finally make a breakthrough, and to all those federal watchers, WATCH THESE RIDINGS at the national level. The PLQ vote is not always Liberal at the federal, while the ADQ (who makes Cheryl Gallant look like Mother Teresa) is a purely Conservative vote. Any region outside Montreal where the PQ falls below 35% is winnable territory for Stephen Harper.

Can Boob-clair come in with a minority? It is possible, but it would be by less than 5 seats. Unfortunately, his homosexuality will hurt him in some areas, to benefit Dumont and his Action Demagogique du Quebec.

Take a nap this afternoon, because it will be a long night.

Cremazie PQ

Laurier-Dorion PLQ

Laval Des Rapides PLQ

Groulx PQ

Deux-Montagnes PQ

Marguerite d’Youville ADQ

La Prairie PQ

Trois Rivieres PLQ

Chambly PLQ

St Jean PLQ

Louis Hebert PLQ

Levis ADQ

Matane PLQ

Kamouraska-Temiscouata PLQ

Berthier ADQ

Chicoutimi PLQ

Dubuc PQ

Roberval PLQ

Abitibi-Est PLQ

Bonne Chance!

Final Prediciton PLQ 56 PQ 51 ADQ 18

3 Commentaires:

Blogger Down & Out in L A a dit...

The Liberals and ADQ will tie.

PQ has deciding votes.

Jean Charest loses seat.

The Premier's job will change weekly so that every MNA gets a turn to be Premier.

Everyone loses but Harper, who has backed two horses.

3/26/2007 8:59 PM  
Blogger s.b. a dit...

Well you were only off by about 30 ridings for the ADQ. Better than some of your predictions and analysis.

3/26/2007 9:14 PM  
Blogger Down & Out in L A a dit...

Charest is falling back.

Now behind by more than 400 votes.

He's looking more and more like a Conservative candidate in the next federal election.

3/26/2007 9:43 PM  

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