May 22, 2008

For the Land of Hmm

State polls for the general election are beginning to appear in the swing states for the November election. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both do well in some red states, albeit different ones. Since we all know popular vote doesn’t matter, here is a batch of polls released this past couple of weeks. (caveat: the election is months away)

Colorado (red state, 9 electoral college votes)

Obama 48 McCain 42
McCain 47 Clinton 44

Missouri (red state 11 electoral college votes)

Clinton 48 McCain 46
McCain 48 Obama 45

Iowa (red state, 7 electoral college votes)

Obama 44 McCain 42
McCain 45 Clinton 42

These three are margin of error polls, so take them with a grain of salt, with Obama pulling ahead in Colorado.

Here is one with a bigger margin.

The gimme is Arkansas, where Clinton is the former governor’s wife.

Arkansas (red state, 6 electoral college votes)
Clinton 53 McCain 39
McCain 57 Obama 33

Now we get to the big swing states with more college votes

Ohio (red state, 20 electoral votes)
Clinton 50 McCain 43
McCain 45 Obama 44

If one is going to argue Colorado is a big margin, they would need to argue this one is a big margin as well…

North Carolina (red state, 15 electoral college votes)

McCain 51 Obama 43
Clinton 49 McCain 43

The most startling gap, in my opinion is the next one, especially a sore point for some Democrats, since this state will not get any delegates to the national convention.

Florida (red state, 27 electoral votes)
McCain 50 Obama 40
Clinton 47 McCain 41

No blue states have shown much vulnerability in recent weeks. Obama was back up by 8 over McCain in Pennsylvania (21), which should allay the fears of some Democrats.

One that could also switch red is New Hampshire (4), which likes McCain very much.

Polls also show both Democrats winning New Mexico (5).

The Democrats have traditionally done well in West Virginia (5). There is no polling data from there as of yet.


1 Commentaires:

Blogger Antonio a dit...

virginia Obama has a 7 point lead.

that is worth 13 electoral votes, the biggest red state where he has the lead

5/22/2008 2:31 p.m.  

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