January 8, 2007

La Nation Quebecoise Votera Tentativement le 2 Avril

Well this was expected but several sources from Montreal are speculating to me that Quebecers will head to the polls on April 2nd 2007, almost 4 years to the day of Jean Charest’s first election win.

With 35 days expected for the campaign, the writ would be dropped the last week of February, a mere week after a Conservative budget will be tabled in the House of Commons. This budget is widely expected to resolve the fiscal imbalance that has hindered provincial governments (some much more than others) since the mid-90s.

With the Quebec nation recognized and the fiscal imbalance resolved, Jean Charest can confidently head to the polls with momentum and claim to have delivered results.

His first election promised major tax cuts but were not delivered as the government had found a hidden PQ deficit (don’t they all?)

Either way, this all seems a little rigged to me but effectively, the setup is in place.

Budget around February 15th.

Photo-op with Ambrose (Quebec’s New Darling!), Harper and Charest around that time.

Writ dropped within 2 weeks of budget.

Quebecers vote April 2nd.

Stephen Harper refuses to “kow-tow to changes from the socialist NDP that would irreversibly damage the Canadian economy.”

Budget fails.

We have an election in late June, our 3rd in 3 years.

Some more fun facts and wild speculation

Charest has already stated he would seek to bring Quebec back into the Constitutional fold if he received a second mandate. With more progress on this issue in the last 4 months than in the previous 10 years, it certainly seems plausible Charest will make the "dreaded" Constitution an issue.

As for Harper, he cannot possibly get away with trying to sell constitutional change to Canadians in an election. However, it is an issue that will divide the opposition quite clearly, as the NDP always supported bringing Quebec in, and there are certain areas of the Liberal Party that see this as necessary, especially with a willing premier, recently elected.

The Bloc will be in a bit of a pickle, as they have no real reason to oppose the plan, other than "Canada is bad", which is hardly an election issue. They will need to come up with something better than that.

Stephen Harper has disarmed them (assist Ignatieff), and will have Charest’s organization and fund raising team at his disposal for the election to come.

As for the Liberals, well. Go Francis Scarpaleggia!

We have 6 weeks until this chain of events is set into motion, otherwise Hurricane Harper and his purchased PLQ organization are going to poll much higher than 14% in the polls.

6 weeks to go! Let the fun begin!

2 Commentaires:

Anonymous Anonymous a dit...

How do you think the issue of the environment will play out in Quebec in terms of political fortunes for the Liberals/Conservatives/Charest?

1/09/2007 4:08 p.m.  
Anonymous Anonymous a dit...


Petit point pour débuter...tentativement n'existe pas en français, c'est un anglicisme à remplacer par provisoirement.

Concernant les dates, le problème du 2 avril, c'est que le PLQ devra annuler le congrès des membres en mars si des élections sont déclenchées fin février. Un congrès pendant une élection serait considéré comme une dépense électorale. Et évidemment, annuler le congrès coûterait quelques sous au Parti.

L'autre possibilité et que je commence à croire comme étant plus réaliste, ce sont des élections début mai. Charest profiterait de son congrès pour obtenir un maximum de couverture médiatique et en profiter pour déclencher des élections la semaine suivante.

Évidemment, ces deux plans se réaliseront seulement si le gouvernement fédéral n'est pas renversé par l'opposition, ce que je crois peu probable pour l'instant.

1/10/2007 1:02 p.m.  

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