July 26, 2007

Desperation From 4th Place has Paid Off Before…

Lapierre (Lib) 35%

Leonard (BQ) 29%

Lauzon (NDP) 17%

Fournier (CPC) 13%

So the Conservative candidate kicked off his campaign in Outremont by taking the old attack on Paul Martin and replacing the name with Stephane Dion.

First it was the finance minister not knowing where money was spent…

Now another former minister from Quebec, this time the unity minister, who had no idea there was a unity fund run out of the PMO. This story is getting old. If the Tories are looking to pick up Liberal votes on the sponsorship scandal, the pickings will be slim this time around.

Jean Lapierre had Ginette Pellerin and a well-oiled machine working in Outremont, with 50 volunteers in the office at the time. Lapierre was Quebec Lieutenant, and was able to benefit from staff members taking leaves of absence to work for him. Lapierre also had the Jewish community (10% of the riding, but they only vote 33% of the time).

The NDP will have to make up a lot of ground to win. The Tories are another long shot. Coulon comes in with the advantage, but with vote splitting in Montreal being the way it is these days, anybody can win. The winner will pick up only about 30% of the vote.

The BQ candidate is a nobody and also has no organization. The BQ will be more worried about holding on to the other two ridings (ridings they have held since 1993)

Polls have shown that BQ votes tend to bleed to the NDP and the Tories in Quebec. While that may help those two parties, Coulon could be the big winner if that scenario unfolds.

We will see if the Liberals do bleed votes. They will not be able to get out the vote like they did. (extremely important in a by-election) I still expect Coulon to hold on…by a whisker. The media here is setting him up, calling him the HEAVY favorite. If it was a general election, I would agree, but it is a by-election so a low turnout means whoever gets their vote out will win.

If the NDP can get the students in Outremont for U de M and those in the McGill Ghetto they will win, but relying on the student vote is like relying on Bob Gainey to sign the big free agents…

The Tories can keep attacking on old news. Desperate attacks from 4th place have paid off for some people before, but unfortunately for Mr. Duguay, it’s a one-ballot vote…


4 Commentaires:

Blogger petroom a dit...

McGill Ghetto? Most students that live there aren't registered in the riding, and especially aren't there in the summer and probably too drunk in September. Plus, McGill anglophones vote Liberal.

7/26/2007 10:12 p.m.  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

the polls in the mile end part of the Mcgill ghetto are NDP polls and voted Lauzon in 2006...

7/26/2007 10:30 p.m.  
Blogger Kingston a dit...

Antonio, you slipping my friend, the CPC knows they will not win, they are just going to wreck havoc, If the LPC loses this seat Mr. Dion is done like Sunday dinner no matter who wins. The CPC is going to just take advantage of this to slam him for the next thirty five days and the MSM will report every utterance out of this campaign and we both know it. The other interesting part of this is the LPC knows their competition is the NDP and will have to focus on them and vice versa, the LPC will be getting it from both sides. Even if the LPC wins, it loses on this campaign.

7/28/2007 9:14 p.m.  
Blogger Phil a dit...

You have categorically been wrong with polls in the past. Why do you always cite them to back up your bankrupt arguments?

Remember when you said Dion would be off by the second ballot tops?

8/02/2007 6:53 p.m.  

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