February 20, 2007

Uh Oh – Nosedive!?!?!?!

New Strategic Counsel poll is out and it spells disaster if your name starts with S and ends with tephane Dion.

We Liberals are looking for an edge in terms of an election issue and this poll tells us what some of us naysayers have been saying all along…the environment is not an election issue.

When asked which party had the best plan on the environment, the Liberals, Tories and NDP were in a statistical tie.

When asked which leader was best on national unity, Stephen “nation-man” Harper leads Stephane “Captain Canada” Dion by 9 points.

Who is the best leader? The PM usually has the incumbent’s advantage, but double!?!?!?!

Harper 36%
Dion 18%

What about who is the most decisive? Certainly Dion is better than Mister Dithers?

Was Paul Martin Mister Dithers? Or were his staff Team Dithers because Team Dithers is back (Marissen, Murphy, Scott Reid is on TV…etc) and Dion’s numbers here are dismal with Harper leading 53-19, nearing TRIPLE what Dion has.

Something has to change and it has to change fast. Dion is about to miss the boat on fiscal imbalance. If Harper is seen to help Charest win, it will only amplify Dion’s problem his problems in his native province.

If I were the OLO, I would commission internal polling to confirm if these numbers are real, and if they are, time for something drastic, because on December 2nd, nobody thought it would turn out like this…

24 Commentaires:

Blogger s.b. a dit...

Antonio Strategic Council is the most Tory biased and unreliable polling firm in the country. This poll means nothing.

I would answer Stephen Harper to their queston. It doesnt mean I would vote for him. They are often out by upwards of 8%. They regularly had the Tories at 42% to 45% during the last federal campaign. These numbers compared to their own polling, mean that Harper has lost 8% to 11% support.

Stratigic council removes the overt bias from their questions only just before an election to come up with a better result and then try to say they are an accurate polling firm.

Always commpare the numbers from the same source. This poll from Alan Gregg is good news for us. No matter how he tries to skew the results with leaning questions, the Tories under Harper are still down at least 8%. That is historically atrocious for the first year of a mandate.

No worries. PS. Try not to get so excited and jump on the band wagon next time Antonio. Still waiting for you to support Dion.

Your constant criticsm, which is just one voice among a certain leadership candidaes followers, is not helping and really needs to stop. It will not help Mr. Ignatieff. Liberals will not be falling all over themselves to thank him, if we lose the next election.

2/20/2007 8:36 a.m.  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

When Captin Canada trails in Unity numbers, there is trouble.

This poll is also on the heels of Nik Nanos' SES report card which showed similar numbers for who is the best leader...

We should be very concerned and immediately commission internal polls.

2/20/2007 8:55 a.m.  
Blogger petroom a dit...

Well, assuming this poll is not crap, I think the most important points are these:

-The Libs lost 8 points, but 5 of these went to the GREEN PARTY, not to the Tories.

-The NDP lost nothing.

-The Undecided vote is LARGE.

If anything, the poll points out that Canadians want their government to be on task regarding the environment.

Libs need to convince that 5% that moved to the Greens that they have a real plan and dedication to environmental responsibility.

This poll shows that public is NOT buying the Tory plan, despite their efforts.

Again, this take is all assuming the poll is worth anything as a snapshot.

2/20/2007 9:13 a.m.  
Blogger petroom a dit...

As for national unity, it only counts when there is a crisis, right?

Well, if there is a crisis, it will only be if the PQ win. Which means that Harper/Charest coalition fail.

In any case, Quebec and Canadians trust Dion more than Harper on the unity file, when push comes to shove.

I wouldn't hire an electrician to do a plumbers work.

2/20/2007 9:16 a.m.  
Blogger WestmountLiberal a dit...

Antonio - interesting poll given that the last one published showed a statistical tie between the Conserv and Libs.
As I'm sure you know this equates to a Liberal minority government.
The sky isn't falling and it's irresponsible to overemphasize the demise of a party in transition.

2/20/2007 9:44 a.m.  
Blogger KC a dit...

Antonio I think you are being a little selective in your choice of polls here to support. Other polls have had the parties much closer in popular support. I would hardly call it a "nosedive". That is pretty hyperbolic language.

Also, if Harper is beating Dion I have my doubts it has anything to do with "nation"--which you should remember that Dion voted for.

2/20/2007 10:02 a.m.  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

the nosedive comment is in regards to Mr. Fife who is competeing with miss taber for woorst journalizt ever.

These numbers are alarming and confirm the SES polls.

That Harper leads Dion on the unity file is downright incredible.

2/20/2007 10:40 a.m.  
Blogger Manitoba Liberal a dit...

I have never been shy to critize Antonio when I think he is on the wrong track, but he's right on this.

Dion has been close to a diaster since the leadership win. The constant one message focus has failed. Canadians care about the environment, but they don't want a Green Government, they want a government that has more than one priority.

Dion's first blunder was allowing the Martin cadre of Marrison and Murphy to have a major role in his office. When are we as a party going to learn that those guys are awsome when it comes to internal party politics, but are freaking idiots when it comes to running a real government/opposition office.

Dion gets one chance to really prove himself. If the Liberals lose seats in the next election he won't make it past a leadership review.

And I'm someone that voted for him on the last ballot, after being with Kennedy.

2/20/2007 10:46 a.m.  
Blogger Peter a dit...

This comment has been removed by the author.

2/20/2007 11:08 a.m.  
Blogger Peter a dit...

PREDICTION:

Quebec Liberal victory, Federal Conservative majority

PQ victory, Federal Liberal majority

Antonio, stop bashing Dion. He may be the only hope we have in keeping Canada united after the Quebec election.

MississaugaPeter

2/20/2007 11:08 a.m.  
Blogger Antonio a dit...

Bashing Dion?

I think the people that took this survey did enough of the talking.

Dion needs to take action, as everything he has done so far has seemingly been for naught.

Tied with the Tories on environment.

Harper doubled Dion in best leader and tripled on most decisive.

9 points behind on Dion's bread and butter issue, national unity.

If that doesnt send a message, I cant possibly think of what does...

2/20/2007 11:36 a.m.  
Blogger godot10 a dit...

On the optimistic side:

Harper was also a disaster in his first few months as opposition leader.

On the pessimistic side:

The Liberal leader Harper was facing was Paul Martin...i.e. Mr. Dithers.

Dion has failed to notice that when he became leader based on the issue of the environment, and when Harper's first Clean Air Act was universally panned, the goalposts on the environment issue moved. Saying "I love Kyoto" is no longer enough.

Dion now has been tactically outmanouvred by Harper, the NDP, the Greens, and many Premiers on the environment issue. Bill C-288 was utter folly...a gift to Harper.

2/20/2007 11:38 a.m.  
Blogger Sinestra a dit...

Regarding Team Dithers: Good question. What the hell is Scott Reid doing representing the LPC on TV?

2/20/2007 11:55 a.m.  
Blogger KC a dit...

and tripled on most decisive.

Hell I would have picked Harper as being "most decisive"... but not in a good way. Decisiveness is not always good. When I have class in the morning and the waitress at the bar asks if I want another round I'm quite "decisive" when I reply "hell yes".

2/20/2007 12:37 p.m.  
Blogger petroom a dit...

The only real movement in the poll was TO THE GREEN PARTY.

Why doesn't anyone comment that this is where the vote is going, NOT to the conservatives?

Dion has not been dithering. I'm happy with his performance when I write down substance over media play.

2/20/2007 1:35 p.m.  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

Action speaks louder than words.

Liberal action on the environment is a joke, we all know that, and I don't have confidence in what they say in regards to this issue.

Conservatives... well, the NDP is pushing them to be more green, and they've realized main-stream voters think the enviornment is an issue. If they want a majority, they cannot deal with the environment like Bush, but cannot do as horrible a job as the Liberals.

Greens, well still not a force to be reckoned with, but their popularity may very well continue slowly growing, which may hurt the NDP and Liberals even more.

2/20/2007 7:37 p.m.  
Blogger WJM a dit...

Any pollster who prompts for "Green" as a choice is committing a methodological erro.

2/20/2007 11:23 p.m.  
Blogger WJM a dit...

Quebec Liberal victory, Federal Conservative majority

PQ victory, Federal Liberal majority


And what if neither the PLQ or PQ scores an outright kill in the election?

2/20/2007 11:24 p.m.  
Blogger renegadejet a dit...

Okay kool aid drinkers lets take stock.

Dion speaks almost no recognizable form of english. He mangles questions and handles interviews poorly.

Disregarding Quebec for a few moments lets focus on the english language debates. Dion will be humiliated. Lets figure four to five points lost in the ROC. That is being charitable in my mind. Dion's english will alienate maritimers and rural Ontario in relatively large numbers.

Inside Quebec the Charest win will drive large numbers to Harper as Quebeckers always vote with their wallets.

Western Canada was a disaster before Dion showed up as a dilettante. Big losses out west and say goodbye to Goodale.

The last Liberal battleground is in and around Toronto but the scarborough gang are largely very blue Liberals. Expect defections or losses there as well.

Doom and gloom if one is a Lib these days. Everytime Dion speaks you lose more people. Not a good situation unless you are Ignatieff.

2/20/2007 11:45 p.m.  
Blogger anybody but iggy a dit...

This comment has been removed by the author.

2/21/2007 1:05 a.m.  
Blogger anybody but iggy a dit...

Speaking of Team Dithers...
What about Pablo, Brigitte, Volpe, Khan, Fragasso, Frulla, LaPieree, and many others who had nothing to do with the Dion campaign, but did everything within their power to aid "Dithers" aka/ Martin's ascent to the throne?

2/21/2007 1:07 a.m.  
Blogger JimTan a dit...

Here’s an overview of the landscape.

The Kyoto Accord passed in 1997. Ratified by Canada in 2002. But, America had no interest in signing on until the disastrous reports from recent climate change findings.

The Accord was only ratified globally (55% of global output) in 2005 with Russia’s inclusion. Fact: Kyoto requires Canada to reduce CO2 to 6% below 1990 level. Currently, we are about 30% over 1990.

The Conservatives say that we cannot achieve the Kyoto target by 2012 without a severe recession. They do not agree to carbon trading (i.e. transfers to the 3rd World). However, carbon trading can be funded by cuts to foreign aid and defense. This is the Dion reply to the neo-conservative worldview.

What’s Dion intention with the Rodriguez bill? It is a fait accompli forcing any government to act. Dion would also be obliged to honour Kyoto targets, even against internal dissent. Question is whether Dion has done his numbers carefully.

In the last two months, Dion has been busy in parliament and in party affairs. He has neglected outreach to the public. And, Harper has reaped the benefit.

The Liberals need to launch a public campaign and media blitz to inform the public ab out his plans

We can play catch up with government action; by passing legislature and buying carbon credits. However, on-going progress requires public efforts to conserve, and business participation in market-based opportunities.

Last week, McGuinty sent a solicitation for funds. How many of you understood the intention and donated money? The fact is that the Liberal Party is still dysfunctional. Dion won’t win until he sorts the party out.

What are the chances of Dion doing that by spring?

2/21/2007 1:25 a.m.  
Blogger andrewridgeley a dit...

"...they cannot deal with the environment like Bush, but cannot do as horrible a job as the Liberals."

Cat Mutant,

You should note that President Bush has introduced some emissions standards and has done wonders to reduce the lead content in US air. His record on the environment shines compared to that of the Liberal Party of Canada. So as pathetic as it sounds yes, they can deal with the environment like Bush because that's a hell of a lot better than the Canadian government ever has.

2/21/2007 2:37 a.m.  
Blogger cat mutant a dit...

Andrew, I totally agree with you. The US, under Bush, has a much better environmental record that Canada, despite Mr.Dithers blasting the US a few years back for not signing Kyoto.

My statement was meant that Harper can't say that the global warming phenomenon doesn't exist.

But yea, the Canadian government should take a page from our "backwards" southern cousins and start doing something constructive to help the environment, not just blab all the time and do nothing like the Liberals.

2/21/2007 7:52 a.m.  

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