Chantal has Spoken...Is Dion the Liberal Preston Manning?
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par / by Anthony à / at 5:20 p.m.
November 17, 2006
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Anthony DiDomizio
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* DIXIT PIERRE ELLIOT TRUDEAU/ Contexte.
13 Commentaires:
Hmm, let's match all the lib leadership contenders to Cons, this will be fun. I'll start with the easiest one: Iggy is sooo Stockwell. I can just picture him in the wetsuit...
I actually think that comparison was a little unfair. Dion is not nearly as annoying as Manning.
However, the favorite of the pundits but not of the people comparison may be a good one.
Adlai Stevenson may be a better comparison for that pundits-people kind of opposition, but it implies to understand it that you have no life beside Wikipedia (I assume it).
But Dion-Manning is amusing... "Montreal-West wants in!"
Chantal Hebert is a card-carrying member of the Quebec and Canadian elite.
The Canadian and Liberal Party elites want one of their own (Iggy or Rae). Dion and Kennedy are "outsiders" to them.
But the Canadian and Liberal Party elites are sort of out-of-touch, which can be seen in the candidates they put up...Iggy and Rae.
The Quebec elites fear Dion, because he is likely to do what Trudeau did, i.e. sweep Quebec...okay, okay, maybe not sweep, but do about Chretien well.
(and Dion doing well, that scares the Rosedale and Forest Hill Liberals too).
The elites (Canadian and Quebecois) like a world in which they call the shots.
Sorry, what pundits liked Manning? I believe Hebert liked Harper always.
From my memory, the pundits who lean Dion are:
Jeffrey Simpson
Andrew Coyne
Warren Kinsella
Paul Wells
Elizabeth May, hehe
Not a bad list.
Chantal Hebert has always struck me as pro-Quebec Nationlist. Of course she's going to slag Dion. she usually does her best to be objective, but not this time.
That said, What alot of people don't seen to get, is that without at least a Chretienesque result in terms of seats (37 or so) they have NO chance, NONE , Zero, NIL chance of forming a majority. Gone forever are the days where they can sweep Ontario. Unless anoter Reform style Tory split happens, which is HIGHLY unlikely, 50-55 in Ontario is as good as it gets.
In fact, the only way we will ever see a majority government in this country again, is to smash the Bloc completely. And that is something Iggy, Rae or Kennedy cannot do. After all, if Quebecois want to vote for a Nationalist party, why not vote for the real thing?
My view is that if Trudeau could take 74 of 75 seats in Quebec, by playing hardball with separatists, And Chretien can bring the totals to 21 in 1993 (up from the 10 from the turner era) 26 in 1997 while facing stiff competition from Charest's Tories, and up to 38 before he handed off to Mr Assymetrical Federalism (who then dropped to 21 in 2004 and 13 in 2006), then I see no reason why Dion could not at least duplicate Chretien's work, if not surpass it.
If I may add, that once Dion is leader, he should dump some nationalists like Lucienne Robillard (who voted to have the canadian flag removed from the National assembly) and bring in a new crop of "wise men from Quebec" such as possibly Justin Trudeau and a few others like him. Then the Bloc will get a run for its money.
Those last two comments were a joke right?
If not i am really, REALLY, scared about the number of stupid people out there.
For the historical record. Trudeau and the liberals were the only party running basically. It had nothing to do with support for his political ideology.
That time has passed. We will never settle the unity debate by returning to strong-armed tactics. If you don't believe me wait until the PQ wins the next election.
As for poor little Justin, lets just leave him alone. Talk of him saving the party will be "get rid" of talented, work working and popular former ministers if just funny. And before anyone attacks Mme Robillard i would like to know if they have ever seen how hard she works each day.
Aside from that, Smok Wawelski, you certainly made me laugh!
canadian to the core,
Do the math, my friend. Chretien took the hard line, in spite of his personal unpopularity in Quebec, and was able to leave Paul Martin a caucus that, for the first time since 1980 , had the Liberals as the majority party in Quebec. Paul Martin blew it in less than two years.
Assuming the best you will do in Ontario is 55-60 seats (sorry, but the Tories won't split again) and that the most you can expect from the west is 15, and from Downeast, 22 would be a top notch showing under the new circumstances, that gives you 97 seats. until you can get 55-58 in Quebec, its minority government status at best. Even the 38 seats that Chretien left Martin wouldn't be enough in today's Market.
Take a tip from Howard Dean (the 50 state strategy) you need to get competitive in all 75 ridings in Quebec, if you ever want a majority of Quebec seats again. No seat should be written off.
And as for the PQ getting back in, that has more to do with Charest's deep unpopularity than anything else.
And the likelihood that tehy are getting back in, makes it all the more important to have a Quebec homeboy there to lay down the law (ie the Clarity Act)and let Quebecers know exactly what the cost of leaving would be (the Quebec Liberal part aren't about to bring that up, having refused to recognize the Clarity Act)and let them know that there are no concessions coming if they decide to stay, ie that the old strategy of Quebec holding the knife to Canada's throat is a dog that don't hunt hunt no more.
The rest of us are sick and tired of the separatist schtick, and won't fall for it anymore. Quebec, like it or not, is "un province comme les autres".
I guess the main difference between Dion and Manning is that Dion polls a lot higher. But lets not undervalue Manning's impact on Canadian Politics on balanced budgets and plan b. If Harper had followed Manning's advice (own the environment issue), we probably would not have pulled even with the conservatives.
Propatria, very suucinct, very true.
I can't see Iggy or Rae (NDP believes in Quebec's right to self determination, after all)using the clarity act to remind Quebec to the fact that borders are indeed on the table.
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