January 29, 2009

He who holds the leash,,,


holds the power
h/t La Presse (Serge Chapleau)

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Michael Ignatieff is already Prime Minister

I can see a few violent reactions to the above statement but hear me out. Ignatieff did exactly what he had to do yesterday.

Firstly, he dumped the coalition which he was so reluctant to enjoy. Even if the Liberals did want to take power, trusting the NDP to co-operate with the Liberals for 18 months is like trusting those Vinny Lecavalier trade rumors: you’ll only get disappointed in the end.

Michael Ignatieff did not undergo some kind of mind altering transformation yesterday. However, the NDP went from wanting him to be their Prime Minister to calling him a Harper clone within minutes. Canadians didn’t want dogma. Unfortunately for the politicians who got left at the altar by the evil known as “rational logic”, dogma was all they could muster.

At the end of the day, Harper is a right wing ideologue. So is deficit Jim. They did their best to put forward a left-wing budget. I wouldn’t call it a sterling effort but A for effort in my books.

The real test for the Harper government will be to see if the money flows and the economy improves as a result. Ignatieff is banking on the Harper government inflating the numbers. He is also banking that the news will only get worse as the sugarcoating as the truth is revealed.

So Stephen Harper is on a leash. Duceppe can never support Harper. Unless Layton has a lobotomy, he will blame the Liberals for the recession and the voters will ignore him.

And once the economy inflicts the maximum political damage on Harper, the Liberals win big…really big.

The one pulling the strings in this scenario is Michael Ignatieff, which means he has the power over Harper, which makes him the Prime Minister.

But hey, at least Harper gets to shake Obama’s hand next month. Enjoy it Steve, the clock is ticking.

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January 26, 2009

Doing Homework During Intermission

We’ve all done it.

Putting out the best piece of crap for a homework assignment between intermissions of a hockey game is like a rite of passage for many Canadians.

I like hockey a lot. I got really good at putting together passable stuff in 17 minutes or less. When the intermission effort gets you an A, you’re in business.

There are certain things I couldn’t do in between intermissions, during coach’s corner, or on the bus on the way to school in the morning.

A Throne Speech qualifies…

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January 21, 2009

Liberals Have Upper Hand in Game of Chicken

The Liberals have the option next week of making a major play for seats across Canada. There is one scenario which is not mentioned that would be the best for Liberals, and we are starting to see the beginnings of it.

The Liberals can propose an alternate budget as an amendment to the budget. This will challenge the BQ and the NDP to vote for it. If they fail to do so, they are solely responsible for the ensuing election.

Harper has the option of passing the Liberal budget, making the amendment a friendly one. However, this time it would cost him Jim Flaherty, who would have no more legitimacy if his budget was replaced.

This scenario places Michael Ignatieff firmly in the driver’s seat. Liberals can still oppose a bad budget. They force Layton and Duceppe to follow their lead, killing a coalition where the two caucuses would merge, or forcing an election.

Duceppe does not want to treat Quebecers to their 5th election since 2006.

Layton is the big loser here, being either relegated to irrelevance or being the goat that caused an election, if only because he wanted a cabinet job and Ignatieff had other ideas.

With Stephen W. Bush’s approval ratings tanking and all the euphoria down south for Barack Obama, an election would probably sweep the Liberals into power anyway.

A shadow budget is already in the works. It is a Liberal silver bullet. If they use it right, they cant lose.

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